DAILY OUTLIER REVIEW – AT 8:56 A.M. ET:  As readers know, we've been following the three outlier (but respected) polls – IBD/TIFF, Rasmussen, and L.A. Times tracker, which have dissented from the conventional polling view that Hillary is well ahead.  We might have to add Fox to the "outlier" list, as its latest poll, which we reported last night, shows that Hillary's lead has been cut to three points.

IBD-TIFF: 

Hillary Clinton's lead widened to two percentage points over Donald Trump in the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll, with a 43% to 41% edge in a four-way matchup. But unrounded results using one more decimal point show Clinton with a smaller 1.2 percentage point lead, 42.6% to 41.4%.

Libertarian Gary Johnson holds 7.5% of the vote, while Green Party standard bearer Jill Stein's support fell to just 2.2% -- less than "other" (2.8%) and "don't know" (3.6%).

However, in a head to head matchup, Clinton now holds a 2.6 percentage point lead over Trump -- 44.2% to 41.6%.

RASMUSSEN: 

Both major party candidates are creeping up in the closing weeks of the presidential campaign, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch.

The new national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters still finds Democrat Hillary Clinton with a one-point lead over Republican Donald Trump – 45% to 44%. Libertarian Gary Johnson remains at a low of four percent (4%), and Green Party nominee Jill Stein earns just one percent (1%) of the vote. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Only the L.A. Times tracker has Trump ahead, 45.2% to 44.5%.

By the way, the new AP poll shows Clinton 14 points ahead, but that, too, looks like an outlier the other way. 

The RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Clinton with a 5.4% lead, a difficult gap to close in these final days of the campaign.

We'll only know on November 9th which pollsters got it right.

October 27,  2016